NSL Season 3 Weekly Predictions: Division 1
Week 3 (22/9/2013) - ns2_nsl_caged, ns2_nsl_descent
Key for Team Records:
1st set of Numbers: wins, losses, and draws (W-L-D)
2nd set of Numbers: rounds for, rounds against (RF-RA)
Key for Miscellaneous:
The second ranking number in parentheses is the team's preseason ranking.
An Asterisk (*) next to a team name indicates a team that has not yet played its previous week's matchup.
Note: These predictions assume a) optimal rosters, and b) the matches are actually being played, and not forfeited. All ranks are division-specific, and not overall seeds (that is, inter-divisional ranks).
Preface:
Unfortunately, all predictions for non-Premiere divisions will be starting in Week 3. As such, all ups-and-downs (for the rankings) will be based on the preseason ranks. I really apologize to all the teams, I've had a lot of real-life stuff to deal with and I fell quite far behind... but I hope I can give everyone the attention they deserve for the rest of the season!
Bye Week: #7 hard.day! (> duplex 4-0, Forfeit)
#1 (▲ #? / #5) priori (3-0-0, 11-1) vs. #6 (▲ #? / #7) nuReign.K (1-0-0, 4-0)
Note: This will be played at a later date, at nuReign's request (Korean holiday this weekend). There seems to be a lot more parity among Division 1 teams compared to the Premiere Division, which is to be expected. Regardless, the predominantly North American priori finds themselves in an enviable position at #1, possibly taking the rest of the division, and me, by surprise. For all intents and purposes, priori was dead—at best, on life support. Besties rusty and carnage have been the cornerstone of priori, the legitimate successor to KKG (King Kahuna Games), the now-defunct pro-team of the well-known chain of pub servers. After leaving All-In after NSL Season 1, they joined KKG along with Welkin (ex-flow) at comm, and jewbear (Damage Networks) and Raccoon (ex-KKG, dat Team!) on the field (among others). It's a pleasant surprise to see priori active because they technically hadn't played an official NSL match (they formed after NSL Season 2 ended), and it seemed as if they might have disbanded before the team had a chance to see the light of day.
But alas, at the end of each season, it seems that team implosions and players looking for new teams is inevitable, which gives life to a squad like priori. After Breakfast Klub's short-lived demise, CatCop and xtc joined priori's ranks bringing some invaluable experience along with them. Soon, they landed bLink (ex-Nexzil/Titus, Damage Networks) and SweetieBot (ex-dysgorge), and suddenly, priori had a stronger lineup than any of their previous incarnations ever boasted, giving them new life and confidence for Season 3—and it's showing.
But don't let this fool you. Korean team nuReign have finally been placed in a division that reflects their skill level. In my very brief encounter with them during Season 2, they told me that they believed they belonged in Division 1 (Premiere Division, by the current season's measurement). If that doesn't scream confidence, then I don't know what does. Instead, they were placed in Division 4 by default and took out their frustration on their opponents. Although they lost their season opener 3-1 against Division-favorites dysgorge (a product of adjustment, I'm sure), they followed it up by absolutely thrashing their next 3 opponents in 4-0 sweeps, and marching through the playoffs by defeating Man Up 3-1 in the semi-finals, and getting their sweet vengeance against dysgorge in the championship by romping them 4-1.
This will be a huge matchup for both teams. It's important that priori doesn't overlook nuReign (and I don't think they will), but it seems that they've been overlooked their entire career so far. And to be honest, I don't think they mind.
This will be an amazing matchup of the glamorous North Americans versus the darkhorse Koreans. I'm taking a shot in the dark here, as I haven't seen nuReign too much personally (especially recently), so I will give priori the benefit of the doubt—they'll take this match up and stay comfortably atop Division 1.
Prediction: #1 priori > #6 nuReign, 3-1 (2-0 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: rusty & bLink (priori), AliceTaylor & Mz (nuReign)
Result: #6 nuReign > #1 priori, 3-1 (Oopsie D:)
#2 ( ▬ #? / #2) vetus (2-1-0, 9-3) vs. #4 ( ▬ #? / #4) RadicaL (1-0-0, 4-0)
Despite losing 3-1 last week to Singularity, vetus find themselves in the #2 spot in Division 1. But if they want to stay in the top half of the division, they've got a tough test ahead of them in the form of European melting-pot RadicaL.
Having been together since NSL Season 1, vetus' chemistry with each other is likely the best in the division. RadicaL can trace its roots equally as far, though with a drastically different roster (they boast an ex-member list that rivals even duplex's). This is a crucial match for both teams because vetus needs to keep pace with priori, meanwhile RadicaL is neck-and-neck with 3 other teams due to duplex withdrawing from the season, gifting every team in the division 4 Rounds and a Win, which is huge. If they want to get any separation, they need to start with a strong outing against the Finns of vetus, who are eager to join the rest of their countrymen in the Premiere Division.
This matchup will be a shootout. You might as well flip a coin to decide the winner, but I won't do that... because it'll end in a draw.
Prediction: #2 vetus = #4 RadicaL, 2-2 (1-1 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: mafu & punpu (vetus), SammyG & Qmotion (RadicaL)
Result: #4 RadicaL > #2 vetus, 3-1 (Almost!)
#3 (▲ #? / #8) Singularity (2-1-0, 8-4) vs. #5 (▲ #? / #6) Seraphic Nexus (1-0-0, 4-0)
Singularity have looked mighty impressive so far this season. They've come a long way since the days of Man Up, which boasted a very similar roster, but it seems the name change has given them new life, and the additions of Sally, Goodkat, and IRONF1ST from dysgorge have bolstered an already-solid lineup. They've been challenging themselves by practicing against Premiere Division teams as of late, and that can only help to improve their play.
Meanwhile, Seraphic Nexus are coming in quietly, as is often the case for Aussie teams who are kind of tucked away out of sight in the Pacific. This isn't at all a bad thing (for them at least), as it makes it a lot harder for opponents to scout/gauge their skill level and preparedness. Regardless, I don't think Singularity are amateur enough to overlook any opponent, and Nexus aren't exactly unknown because, well, they're in Division 1 after all.
So all the cards are on the table—let them fall where they may. I'm high on Singularity for the season as they have some of the best shooters in Division 1. I have a feeling that the Aussies have Pocket Aces for this hand: Australian teams often employ radically different strategies and meta which make it difficult for NA teams to adapt on-the-fly. But as the matchup unfolds, Singularity will show that they aren't just any run-of-the-mill NA team.
Look for an unconventional approach by Nexus, but great couters by Singularity as they take this match.
Prediction: #3 Singularity > #5 Seraphic Nexus, 3-1 (1-1 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: Sharp & IRONF1ST (Singularity), Ghosthree3 & nezz (Nexus)
Result: #3 Singularity > #5 Seraphic Nexus, 4-0 (FORFEIT :[ )
Week 4 (29/9/2013) - ns2_nsl_veil, ns2_nsl_tram
Bye Week: #1 priori (> duplex 4-0, Forfeit)
#5 (▲ #6 / #7) nuReign.K* (1-0-2, 4-0) vs. #7 ( ▬ #7 / #3) hard.day! (1-2-0, 4-8)
hard.day! were once one of the biggest up-and-coming teams in Europe. After a really tough NSL Season 1 where the team lost 4 of its 5 matches, they regrouped in a big way by losing only one match through the 2013 NSL Custom Map Cup, the 2013 NSL Invitational Qualifier (to BAGUETTE), and NSL Season 2 plus the Season 2 playoffs. Losing top player malga to Premiere team Quaxy was a huge blow for them, and it's showing as they've dropped their first two matches in consecutive sweeps to current #1 and #2 seeds, priori and vetus, respectively.
Despite playing the top two teams already, their road isn't getting any easier: next on the dockett is nuReign who are eager to prove that they belong in the conversation of the elite. But this notion might be hard for some to believe by just looking at this season—their only victory is a forfeit win over the now-defunct duplex, and they have two draws because of the new NSL rules that dictate automatic forfeits for teams that don't play their matches during that specific match week (that can be replayed, of course, but the forfeits stand until then). So I'm sure nuReign are just chomping at the bit to actually play a match, and facing the rebuilding hard.day! would be a perfect start for them.
While Verslayer is scrambling to rekindle hard.day!'s former glory, nuReign is scrambling to finally play a match and remind everyone that they're in NSL Season 3, and have big goals to accomplish. Unfortunately, hard.day! will run into yet another tough loss here.
Prediction: #5 nuReign > #7 hard.day!, 4-0
Top Performers: Mage & Bzk (nuReign), Verslayer & Pr0t0 (hard.day!)
Result: #5 nuReign > #7 hard.day!, 4-0 (BOOYA!)
#2 ( ▬ / #2) vetus* (2-1-1, 9-3) vs. #5 ( ▬ / #6) Seraphic Nexus* (1-1-1, 4-4)
vetus are in a tough position here: despite being #2, they have the Europeans in RadicaL and the North Americans in Singularity hot on their heels, eager to snatch that seed behind Division 1 kings priori. vetus can't afford any kind of lapse because they could easily tumble out of the top 4 teams in just one week's time.
Enter Seraphic Nexus, a team just barely on the outside looking in: they still have their match to play against Singularity, which is huge in terms of predicting this match as Singularity will be a common opponent for both of these teams and a great way to gauge their skill level, and I'll update this prediction accordingly as soon as the Nexus/Singularity matchup is done. EDIT: Naturally, Singularity/SnX will have to replay at some point later on in the season. Go figure!
So as a preliminary prediction, I'd consider these two teams to be pretty even, and thus battle to a draw. Neither team will be set back big by this, and they'll still be in the chase.
Prediction: #2 vetus = #5 Seraphic Nexus, 2-2 (1-1 Veil, 1-1 Tram)
Top Performers: sadisti & EL_GRINGO_MUERTE (vetus), PollyEsther & kur- (Nexus)
Result: #2 vetus > #5 Seraphic Nexus, 4-0 (FORFEIT :[ )
#4 (▼ #3 / #8) Singularity* (2-1-0, 8-4) vs. #3 (▲ #4 / #4) RadicaL* (2-0-1, 8-0)
This is a huge match up for both teams: a win for RadicaL would mean much greater separation from the rest of the pack, while a win for Singularity would essentially propel them safely to #2 in the Division. There's some major parity among these Division 1 teams, and a loss at any point could have some major implications later on down the line in terms of seeding and tie-breakers. Singularity had an early wake-up call with a 3-1 loss to heavy Division-favorites priori and are undoubtedly looking to recoup and play as flawlessly as possible for the rest of the season.
RadicaL, however, won't make it easy for the North Americans. Both of these teams are basically dead-locked in the standings, but at the end of the day, something's gotta give. RadicaL have shown that they belong here with dominant wins over teams like Team Work & Tactics and Packet loss, and even managing to take rounds from miau, Damage Networks, and even Goðar.
And despite holding a 3-1 victory over Singularity, I don't think RadicaL will have as good fortune this time around: this is simply not the same Singularity team they played back in June. Singularity have been practicing their tails off lately, and the additions of a few ex-dysgorge members can't be overstated: the North Americans will return the favor in this match.
Prediction: #4 Singularity > #3 RadicaL, 3-1 (1-1 Veil, 2-0 Tram)
Top Performers: Sally & zezebox (Singularity), Nittai & relent (RadicaL)
Result: #3 RadicaL > #4 Singularity, 3-1 (My second guess :D)
