Key for Team Records:
1st set of Numbers: wins, losses, and draws (W-L-D)
2nd set of Numbers: rounds for, rounds against (RF-RA)
Key for Miscellaneous:
The second ranking number in parentheses is the team's preseason ranking.
An Asterisk (*) next to a team name indicates a team that has not yet played its previous week's matchup.
Note: These predictions assume a) optimal rosters, and b) the matches are actually being played, and not forfeited. All ranks are Division AND, if applicable, Group-specific, and not overall seeds (that is, inter-divisional/group ranks).
Preface:
Unfortunately, all predictions for non-Premiere divisions will be starting in Week 3. As such, all ups-and-downs (for the rankings) will be based on the preseason ranks. I really apologize to all the teams, I've had a lot of real-life stuff to deal with and I fell quite far behind... but I hope I can give everyone the attention they deserve for the rest of the season!
NSL Season 3 Weekly Predictions: Division 3
Week 3 (22/9/2013) - ns2_nsl_caged, ns2_nsl_descent
Group A
Bye Week: #5 Renegade 2
#1 ( ▬ #? / #1) el'pheer (2-0-0, 8-0) vs. #7 (▼ #? / #4) HBZ (0-2-0, 1-7)
This is a very, very intriguing clash of clans that have been moving in opposite directions. One one side, we have HBZ—once a Division 1 (i.e. Premiere Division) team, and one of the most recognizable names in the game—fallen from grace, trying to rebuild their team upon an historic foundation. On the other side, we have el'pheer: another Finnish team that's been scratching and clawing to move up the divisional ladder—and it's hard to argue against them.
el'pheer has been around since NSL Season 1, going 3-1 and ending up in 3rd place. They sharpened their skills in the off-season, participating in the 2013 NSL Invitational Qualifiers, and absolutely annihilated Division 3 in Season 2 going 6-1 for the season and dropping a total of 4 out of 28 rounds. Unfortunately, they came up short yet again, placing 3rd. Eager to break that trend, they're off to an extremely hot start this season, and are looking to continue their streak. HBZ once housed names like DeadManWalking, Hakatri, Shoot2Kill, blind (Pathogen), GohanZeta (RadicaL), and FoelliX (duplex). With a brand new roster, however, dePARA and Bicsum are trying to groom HBZ 2.0 for the future—but this season will largely be a trial by fire for the new blood.
When it comes down to it, el'pheer's stock has never been higher than it is now. And as much as it pains me to say it, HBZ is but a shadow of it's former self. The Finns take this and will march onward to Week 4 at 3-0.
Prediction: #1 el'pheer > #7 HBZ, 4-0
Top Performers: lobo & MuteD (el'pheer), homba gomba & Razghul (HBZ)
Result: #1 el'pheer > #7 HBZ, 4-0 (BOOYA!)
#2 (▲ #? / #6) Vexta (1-0-0, 4-0) vs. #6 (▲ #? / #7) FIGHT CLAN (0-1-1, 2-6)
I'll admit this up front: I know absolutely nothing about either of these teams, so my predicition will be, more or less, a shot in the dark. We're seeing a predominantly British team in Vexta versus the predominantly French/Belgian team in FIGHT CLAN, with both squads being completely new this season.
That being said, I'm inclined to give the Brits the benefit of the doubt by virtue of the fact that they played in the 2013 NSL Summer Cup against the likes of dat Team!, Waka Waka, o Victory, and Original gorges—granted, all in losing efforts—but that kind of experience against much more seasoned teams is rather invaluable... and I'm not sure FIGHT CLAN has really been tested yet.
Even so, Vexta is off to a great start, 4-0'ing HBZ, but the Frenchmen might have a little something up their sleeve. Vexta takes the matchup, but might easily be tied.
Prediction: #2 Vexta > #6 FIGHT CLAN, 3-1 (2-0 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: BlueEyedDragon & madhulkster (Vexta), crosshair & Salad (FIGHT CLAN)
Result: #2 Vexta > #6 FIGHT CLAN, 4-0 (Almost!)
#3 (▲ #? / #5) Gorge Busters (1-1-0, 4-4) vs. #4 (▼ #? / #3) The Art of War♥ (1-0-0, 3-1)
This is like, a civil war of a matchup since Gorge Busters were TAW1, once upon a time. Now, TAW2 is TAW1... or something...
In any case! This is an important matchup for Gorge Busters. el'pheer is running away with the division so far, and that doesn't look to be changing any time soon. That being said, there are a lot of teams fighting over the 2nd 3rd and 4th spots for the playoffs, and seeding is everything when it comes to the post season.
Despite Gorge Busters' higher rank than TAW, they're in a very precarious position because TAW are no pushovers, and Busters are in real danger of falling out of the top 4 if they lose to TAW and Renegade 2 comes back with a win in Week 4 fresh off their Bye. And that's not something they can afford midway through the season. They've got the toughest part out of the way (el'pheer), though, so the rest of the season should be much more manageable for them.
All things considered, I think these two teams' familiarity with each other will bring this, ultimately, to a draw.
Prediction: #3 Busters = #4 TAW, 2-2 (1-1 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: Eastwood & Prommah (Busters), Neoken & CellarPhantom (TAW)
Result: #3 Busters > #4 TAW, 4-0 (Maybe next time I'll be closer!)
Group B
Bye Week: #5 Silver Moon
#1 (▲ #? / #3) Evolved Ones (2-0-0, 7-1) vs. #2 (▼ #? / #1) Next Level Gaming (1-0-0, 3-1)
Evolved Ones are one of the newest NA teams in the truest sense of the phrase: they aren't made up of former members of other teams—just good old fashioned recruiting. They formed close to the end of Season 2, perhaps a few weeks after division-mates Waka Waka.
nL, on the other hand, have been the journeymen of NA's thriving midcard. They've been together since Season 2 and have held a consistently stable lineup. Although the departure of WillzZz, digital.juice, and deathmonger are a tangible blow to the squad, they've added Ben Jammin (Man Up), Nuke (Singularity), Griff (Scurvy) and Lerkin Off (Team 156) to buttress their roster. To be honest, I would have thought nL to be in Division 2, or at least in Group A of Division 3, but they've gotta work with the cards their dealt, and they're well on their way to an impressive season regardless.
I'm inclined to think that these two will meet once more, likely in the championship, but this matchup is important because the winner will have a significant seeding advantage over the other in the short-term future.
I was able to cast EO's very first scrim which was against—as fate would have it—Next Level Gaming. Granted that was months ago and a completely different build (pre-250). Regardless, EO has come a long, long way since then, and it's showing. These two teams will mix it up once more. Look for an extremely even battle as both teams go back and forth, eventually battling to a climactic draw.
Prediction: #1 Evolved Ones = #2 Next Level Gaming, 2-2 (EO 2-0 Caged, nL 2-0 Descent)
Top Performers: w0k & ZippoFluid (EO), jayjayblinks & Nuke (nL)
Result: #2 Next Level Gaming > #1 Evolved Ones, 4-0 (Got me there!)
#3 (▲ #? / #4) Maximum Damage (0-1-0, 1-3) vs. #7 (▼ #? / #4) Renegade (0-1-0, 0-4)
Maximum Damage are a brand new Russian team on the scene, so I'm personally not too familiar with them (as I'm sure most people aren't). Renegade, on the other hand, are comparatively more seasoned as they've been together since Season 2 and have some pretty extensive, and relatively successful, experience with teams that are currently above them in terms of their division.
I can't gauge Maximum Damage much outside of the fact that they lost to Next Level Gaming 3-1 (nothing to be ashamed of). And although they were 4-0'd by Evolved Ones, Renegade had a ton of success last season, beating Group A's Gorge Busters 3-1, and even took Division-favorites el'pheer to the limit in a 4-3 loss for 3rd place.
All that being said, I've got an inkling that the Russians have something in store for Renegade and will take this week's matchup.
Prediction: #3 Maximum Damage > #7 Renegade, 3-1 (2-0 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: mathk1tten & Bratishka (Maximum Damage), mO & NeuRoFunK (Renegade)
Result: #3 Maximum Damage = #7 Renegade, 2-2 (Close but no cigar T_T)
#4 (▲ #? / #5) Waka Waka (0-1-0, 1-3) vs. #6 (▼ #? / #7) OMNOM (0-0-0, 0-0)
Although Waka Waka's off to an 0-1 start, there's no need to panic. I'm confident that we'll see them in the playoffs, but that doesn't mean they should take any of their competition lightly, especially their upcoming opponent: OMNOM. A newborn clan, I honestly would give OMNOM the advantage here based on the element of surprise (i.e. Waka Waka has absolutely no way to study them).
Despite this, however, Waka has made absolutely huge strides as a team so far. I think most people see Group B as a battle between the current #1 and #2 teams, Evolved Ones and Next Level Gaming, respectively, but I'm positive that Waka has an objection to that. They want to make this a three-way fight for the bump up to Division 2 (and that's not even counting the Group A teams they'll have to deal with if they make it that far), but they've got a lot of work ahead of them: first on the agenda—OMNOM.
I don't think OMNOM is nearly developed yet as a cohesive unit. Chemistry and communication are often overlooked and go unnoticed to the casual fan/spectator who doesn't play on a competitive team, and in those departments, I'm confident that Waka are worlds ahead of OMNOM. They'll take this week.
Prediction: #4 Waka Waka > #6 OMNOM, 4-0
Top Performers: kombin3 & rudyeckert (Waka), Blainn & Kenshiro (OMNOM)
Result: #4 Waka Waka = #6 OMNOM, 2-2 (Wow, OMNOM way better than I was expecting! What fantastic games!) [Casted by Yours Truly! w/ datto]
Week 4 (29/9/2013) - ns2_nsl_veil, ns2_nsl_tram
Group A
Roster Changes: ~ #4 TAW♥: +T10, + DCDarkling // #6 FIGHT CLAN: +Snoopy
Bye Week: #3 Gorge Busters
#1 ( ▬ #? / #1) el'pheer (2-0-0, 8-0) vs. #2 (▲ #? / #6) Vexta (2-0-0, 8-0)
Intriguing match for Week 4. When it comes down to it, like their logo, Vexta are green. They formed rather recently, having a trial by fire run in the 2013 NSL Summer Cup. But it might have been the experience they needed to get their members into gear for Season 3 because they're off to a hot start: they followed up their 4-0 win over HBZ with another sweep of FIGHT CLAN last week.
Next on the agenda is #1 seed el'pheer, who have a ton of experience, having played since NSL Season 1. This match is strange because it means a lot, but at the same time, doesn't mean a lot. It's a great way for one of these teams to definitively claim #1. But by the same token, these two teams appear to be the de facto #1 and #2 teams in Group A—their only threat at the moment being #3 Gorge Busters. In terms of their records, though, they're really in no danger of falling out of the playoff chase barring a complete meltdown in the last few weeks.
Oddly enough, though, these two teams will have to wait until the post season to find a definitive superior. The mixture of experience and youth will eventually boil down to a draw.
Prediction: #1 el'pheer = #2 Vexta, 2-2 (1-1 Veil, 1-1 Tram)
Top Performers: scoobyz & ContagiouS (el'pheer), Kilo & Leap (Vexta)
Result: #1 el'pheer = #2 Vexta, 2-2 (BOOYA!)
#6 (▲ #? / #7) FIGHT CLAN (0-2-1, 2-10) vs. #7 (▼ #? / #4) HBZ (0-2-0, 1-7)
This meeting between French and German clans will seemingly have two opposite effects: for one team, it will breathe new life and give them hope for one last push into the playoffs (likely competing with TAW♥ for the #4 spot behind el'pheer, Vexta, and Gorge Busters). For the other, unfortuntely, it will serve as a death knell. Falling to 0-3 half-way through the season is nigh impossible to recover from.
For all intents and purposes, FIGHT CLAN are a baby of a team compared to the illustrious history that's backing HBZ (completely different team back then, but my point still stands). One might judge this match based on their records and rounds for/against, in which case FIGHT CLAN would be the favorite. But I've got a feeling that HBZ will get it together this week and pick up their first victory of the season, propeling them into contention for that last playoff spot.
Prediction: #7 HBZ > #6 FIGHT CLAN, 3-1 (1-1 Veil, 2-0 Tram)
Top Performers: dePARA & Triarier (HBZ), Whoracle & Darkray (FIGHT CLAN)
Result: #6 FIGHT CLAN > #7 HBZ, 4-0 (Way off :[ )
#4 (▼ #? / #3) The Art of War♥ (1-1-0, 3-5) vs. #5 (▼ #? / #3) Renegade 2 (0-1-1, 2-6)
This is a pretty crucial match for both of these teams. TAW are barely hanging on to that #4 seed. With FIGHT CLAN, HBZ, and Renegade 2 just barely on the cusp of the playoff race, all three of them have their eyes locked on TAW's #4 spot, and this leaves very little room for error on TAW's part.
A win here means that Renegade 2 would leapfrog TAW based on their RF (they would have 5 rounds won, compared to TAW's 4). The problem that both of these teams face, however, is that their future doesn't look too good from here on out: they still have el'pheer and Vexta to face.
Make no bones about it, this is an absolute must-win situation for both teams, as a loss here would virtually doom them out of the playoffs with their hardest opponents still yet to come. In the end, though, TAW will pull through—for now.
Prediction: #4 TAW > #5 Renegade 2, 3-1 (2-0 Veil, 1-1 Tram)
Top Performers: DCDarkling & EvilTK (TAW), Jackson & Shanks (Renegade 2)
Result: #4 TAW > #5 Renegade 2, 4-0 (Sooo closeee!) [Casted by Yours Truly w/ datto!]
Group B
Roster Changes ~ #2 Next Level Gaming: +Blwsky, +Scout255 // #7 Renegade: +PoK // #5 Silvermoon: +GLaDOS
Bye Week: #3 Maximum Damage
#1 (▲ #? / #3) Evolved Ones* (2-0-0, 7-1) vs. #6 (▲ #? / #7) OMNOM* (0-0-0, 0-0)
Evolved Ones have played all their cards right, so far. They're the #1 seed and next are newbloods OMNOM, who should be the perfect opponent for them to continue their upward momentum and build a lead over favorites Next Level Gaming before their rescheduled showdown.
The Europeans in OMNOM still have yet to play a game, so I still can't gauge their skill level. Regardless, I'm pretty familiar with Evolved Ones, and fellow NA teams Waka Waka and Next Level Gaming should be the only real threat to them. Evolved Ones have already beaten Waka, so they will take this matchup and look forward to Next Level Gaming to ostensibly decide the #1 seed for the playoffs.
Prediction: #1 Evolved Ones > #6 OMNOM, 4-0
Top Performers: Parsnip & radionaut (Evolved Ones), Luta & Rulerpop (OMNOM)
Result: #6 OMNOM > #1 Evolved Ones, 4-0 (Woops! OMNOM much better than I anticipated :D)
#2 (▼ #? / #1) Next Level Gaming* (1-0-0, 3-1) vs. #4 (▲ #? / #5) Waka Waka* (0-1-0, 1-3)
Next Level Gaming are the prohibitive favorite for this Group—perhaps even the division, given their vast experience in Season 2's burgeoning NA scene—and just to make sure, they've added Blwsky from the recently-imploded Division 2 dat Team!, and Scout255 of TBG fame. Waka Waka, meawhile, have maintained basically the same core roster since its inception, but they will have their work cut out for them as Next Level Gaming will be taking no prisoners on their way to the playoffs.
Next Level Gaming will be the victors here. But it's not that huge of a blow to Waka—this Group is just wide open, and nL, EO, and Waka are all basically guaranteed playoff spots, so long as they don't sleep on the non-NA teams.
Prediction: #2 Next Level > #4 Waka Waka, 3-1 (2-0 Veil, 1-1 Tram)
Top Performers: Blwsky & Polypeptide (nL), Campbell & os2firefox (Waka Waka)
Result: #2 Next Level > #4 Waka Waka, 4-0 (Horseshoes! Handgrenades!)
#5 ( ▬ #5 / #6) Silvermoon (0-1-0, 1-3) vs. #7 (▼ #? / #4) Renegade* (0-1-0, 0-4)
Silvermoon are relatively unknown—they've been around since NSL Season 2 but haven't really turned many heads. Personally, I'm constantly hawking my friends list on Steam to crash scrims and cast, and in doing so, I've seen many different teams. But I honestly can't say I've ever seen Silvermoon scrimming. Perhaps I'm just not looking at the right times, but my point still stands.
A team's history is normally a good indicator of its future—not in all cases, but in this one, it would seem to hold true. Since NSL Season 2, Silvermoon have won only two matches out of the eleven they've played (including the 2013 NSL Summer Cup). Renegade, on the other hand, went 5-1-1 in NSL Season 2's European Division 3, and battled to a 3-4 loss against current Group A favorite el'pheer. They've also tied Maximum Damage this season, a team that defeated Silvermoon in their match up.
It just doesn't look good for the North Americans—Renegade will take this and move on to Waka Waka.
Prediction: #7 Renegade > #5 Silvermoon, 4-0
Top Performers: Fleshmauler & Tinki (Renegade), Ralcor & Popdog (Silvermoon)
Result: #5 Silvermoon > #7 Renegade, 4-0 (Woops! Not my fault, Silvermoon never practices D:)
