Week 3 (22/9/2013) - ns2_nsl_caged, ns2_nsl_descent
NSL Season 3 Weekly Predictions: Division 2
Key for Team Records:
1st set of Numbers: wins, losses, and draws (W-L-D)
2nd set of Numbers: rounds for, rounds against (RF-RA)
Key for Miscellaneous:
The second ranking number in parentheses is the team's preseason ranking.
An Asterisk (*) next to a team name indicates a team that has not yet played its previous week's matchup.
Note: These predictions assume a) optimal rosters, and b) the matches are actually being played, and not forfeited. All ranks are Division AND, if applicable, Group-specific, and not overall seeds (that is, inter-divisional/group ranks).
Preface:
Unfortunately, all predictions for non-Premiere divisions will be starting in Week 3. As such, all ups-and-downs (for the rankings) will be based on the preseason ranks. I really apologize to all the teams, I've had a lot of real-life stuff to deal with and I fell quite far behind... but I hope I can give everyone the attention they deserve for the rest of the season!
Bye Week: #6 Ascension
#1 (▲ #? / #2) Team Work & Tactics (1-0-0, 4-0) vs. #3 (▲ #? / #4) Original gorges* (0-1-0, 1-3)
Team Work & Tactics formed before NSL Season 2. They might be one of the more visible non-Premiere teams because of their garrulous commander Bonkers who, to his credit, normally backs up his talk. But TW&T are going up against Original gorges, a team with an impressive track record despite their 0-1 start to Season 3.
Original gorges quietly ran the Division 3 table in Season 2, going 9-0, with 8 of those wins being sweeps, including 3-0 over Renegade in the semi-finals and 4-0 over RadicaL in the championship. They defeated Division 1's Singularity 4-0 in the Balance Mod Cup and were able to take a round from Premiere Division's Damage Networks. TW&T, meanwhile, can't rest on their laurels, because division-favorites Scurvy are hot on their heels for that #1 divisional ranking.
I give TW&T a big advantage in terms of strategy because Bonkers is, well, bonkers. But both of these teams are dead even in terms of skill—and as a result, this matchup will end in a draw. But that's fine, because the season is still young, and both teams will find themselves in the post season, anyways, where they can settle their differences if the stars align.
Prediction: #1 TW&T = #3 gorges, 2-2 (1-1 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: Bonkers & Wob (TW&T), rox & teadaze (gorges)
Result: #3 gorges > #1 TW&T, 3-1 (Close!)
#2 (▼ #? / #1) Scurvy (1-0-0, 3-1) vs. #7 (▼ #? / #3) WongaNS (0-1-0, 0-4)
Scurvy are the prohibitive favorites to win Division 2 and move on up the ladder. In my own estimation, they actually belong in Division 1 this season, but this might not be the worst position for them to be in. They have the entire season to hone their individual skills and develop their chemistry as a squad against teams that are hungry to dethrone them—and getting everyone's best shot week in and week out is better for them in the long run as opposed to being middle-of-the-pack in Div 1.
Regardless, Scurvy will be looking to take back that #1 rank from TW&T and unfortunately for Wonga, they're in the way. Wonga have been around since
Season 1, and boast a roster that defies inventory logic. Compare this with the relatively intimate Scurvy lineup, and it might be a bit of a problem because, despite their younger age (in terms of the team's existence), they've played with nearly the same lineup consistently, against many higher-division teams. Couple this with the fact that Scurvy's roster is madeup of an amalgam of pros and out-of-sight pubstars, helmed by the charismatic Decoy (ex-Damage Networks), and you've got a volatile team ready to make some waves in NSL.
I think Wonga might be able to steal a round, but Scurvy will be gunning for #1, and nothing will stop them from that. Look for the one-two punch of Pakars' lerk and Mikan's fade to make quick work of any marines in their way.
Prediction: #2 Scurvy > #7 Wonga, 4-0
Top Performers: Pakars & Mikan (Scurvy), Mega & Totaldang (Wonga)
Result: #2 Scurvy > #7 Wonga, 3-1 (Close enough!)
#4 (▲ #? / #5) 50 Shades of Awesome (0-0-0, 0-0) vs. #6 ( ▬ #? / #7) dat Team! (0-0-0, 0-0)
The Aussies in 50 Shades (previously known as Nostromo (?) and Seraphic Nexus #2) have come into this season literally under the radar. With very close ties to Division 1's Seraphic Nexus, they're no slouches. They'll be facing dat Team!, the artists formerly known as RAGE, which is more or less NA team VexX mixed with Team 156.
Now, for most of us, the Australians are kind of like mythological creatures: we hear about them, but very rarely, if ever, have seen them. But don't be fooled—they have their own league Down Under, so there's no lack of practice or competition for them.
I'm more familiar with dat Team!, but after watching some 50 Shades scrims, I'm finding their teamwork and situational awareness to be impeccable. I'll admit I'm not quite sure how all the Aussie teams measure up to international competition (and likewise, I don't think international teams do, either), but that's the beauty of this season: we'll get to see that, finally. I want to give dat Team! the benefit of the doubt, but I'm finding myself impressed by 50 Shades. I think they'll take this comfortably.
Prediction: #4 50 Shades > #6 dat Team!, 3-1 (2-0 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: interstella & ten (50 Shades), SUPER SARS & Raccoon (dat Team!)
Result: #4 50 Shades > #6 dat Team!, 4-0 (Forfeit; dat Team! disbands. R.I.P.)
Group A
Group B
Bye Week: #6 Virtual Selection, #4 Pathogen (> #7 o Victory 4-0, Forfeit)
#4 (▼ #? / #3) onFire (1-0-0, 4-0) vs. #3 (▼ #? / #1) dysgorge (1-0-1, 6-2)
This is definitely a match to keep an eye on. dysgorge have been quiet contenders for a while in the lower divisions, looking to make that leap into the truly elite. They've had a bit of a roster shuffle, losing IRONF1ST, Sally, and GoodKat to fellow NA team Singularity. But, undaunted, they picked up Mors (priori), Sloth (Breakfast Klub), and NS1 veteran muff (changin THE METAGAME) who will all bring invaluable experience to the team, as well as NSL newcomers zomb3h, Adrai and MrPenniL.
onFire is a newly formed European team helmed by NSL shoutcaster Vindaloo that literally burst onto the scene in the 2013 NSL European Open, with two
4-1 victories over RadicaL and Division-mate Packet loss, and a 2-2 draw with Division 1 squad nuReign. But make no mistake, dysgorge are new and definitely improved, coming off a tie with big divisional group favorites Pathogen: a team that features the ubiquitous blind (duplex, HBZ), B1 (Nine Legends [NS1], coolclan, Mercury), Ryssk (duplex, Gra Hunduri), and Osku (Quaxy [NS1], Saunamen [NS1], vetus). Drawing a team with that much experience is saying something, and that something for dysgorge is this: we're in it to win it.
dysgorge will take this and stay in Group B's Top 3 going into Week 4, but it'll be a lot closer than the score indicates.
Prediction: #3 dysgorge > #4 onFire, 3-1 (2-0 Caged, 1-1 Descent)
Top Performers: sloth & muff (dysgorge), Vindaloo & SwissPav (onFire)
Result: #4 onFire > #3 dysgorge, 4-0 (There's missing the mark. Then there's missing the mark >_>)
#2 (▲ #? / #7) Packet loss (2-0-0, 8-0) vs. #5 ( ▬ #? / #5) RaZe (1-0-0, 4-0)
This is an interesting matchup between two relatively new teams to the NSL scene, with RaZe being brand spankin' new. But don't be deceived—they're good. Really good. I think all the Aussie teams will have a leg-up on a lot of their opponents this season just because of the surprise factor that's on their side. No one really knows anything about any of them. Their strategies, their skill, even their meta-game is slightly different than what most teams might be used to. RaZe specifically bring some incredible teamwork to the table, and aren't to be taken lightly, ping disadvantage or not.
Packet loss, on the other hand, are a real enigma: they bested Division 1's Team Work & Tactics 4-0 in the 2013 European Open, but lost to division-mates onFire in the very same tournament 4-1. But then they defeated Virtual Selection 4-0 in Week 1 this season—a team that I've personally seen give onFire trouble. So I really have no idea how to gauge their skill.
I'd give Packet loss the benefit of the doubt because of their successful recent history with teams I'm more familiar with, but RaZe, again, like other Aussie teams, just bring an element of unpredictability to the table. I see Aussie teams giving everyone trouble until later in the season where NA/EU teams adapt to their wonky play styles.
Prediction: #5 RaZe = #2 Packet loss, 3-1 (1-1 Caged, 2-0 Descent)
Top Performers: Mazza & zero (RaZe), Aids & Insanity (Packet loss)
Result: #5 RaZe > #2 Packet loss, 4-0 (Packet loss disbands :( )
Week 4 (29/9/2013) - ns2_nsl_veil, ns2_nsl_tram
Group A
Roster Changes ~ #1 Scurvy: +Lamb
Bye Week: #4 Original gorges, #5 WongaNS (> dat Team! 4-0, Forfeit)
#2 (▼ #1 / #2) Team Work & Tactics* (2-0-0, 8-0) vs. #6 ( ▬ #6 / #6) Ascension (1-0-0, 4-0)
This is a super-interesting match: on the one side, we have Team Work & Tactics, the team that most people feel are the biggest threat to Scurvy for the top seed in Division 2. On the other side, however, we have the relatively enigmatic Aussies in Ascension. As I'm sure most people aren't too aware of them, they are far and away the top team Down Under, and anyone who knows Ascension knows that they belong in Division 1, not 2. Regardless, you can only play the opponents that are on your schedule and Ascension finds themselves in a relatively comfortable position both to adapt to international play, as well as to announce their arrival on the international scene.
TW&T commander Bonkers is rather well-known for his aloof nature and and innovative approach, but he might have met his match in Ascension's Slayar. Without getting into specifics, Ascension's approach to the game is... different. The question is, can TW&T adapt in the middle of a game to counter?
As an aside, I hope I'll get to cast this as it'll be a great chess-match between these two comms, but either way, look for Ascension to make a statement here. The Aussies win in an upset.
P.S. For anyone interested in seeing the top AU team in action, I finally got to cast some scrims (1 & 2) between Ascension and Division 1's Singularity. If you plan on watching, be sure you have popcorn and other entertainment foods at the ready—because it's a loooooong watch.
Prediction: #6 Ascension > #2 TW&T, 3-1 (1-1 Veil, 2-0 Tram)
Top Performers: mf- & nneeee (Ascension), psico & Wob (TW&T)
Result: #6 Ascension > #2 TW&T, 4-0 (Forfeit, I think :o?)
#1 (▲ #2 / #2) Scurvy (3-0-0, 10-2) vs. #3 (▲ #4 / #5) 50 Shades of Awesome (2-0-0, 8-0)
Despite their undefeated record, Scurvy cannot fall asleep at the wheel. TW&T and their next opponent, 50 Shades, are both 2-0 and looking to keep pace with the North Americans. The Aussies in 50 Shades have proven their staying power by 4-0'ing Wonga (the 2nd half casted by yours truly!), something Scurvy wasn't able to do this season.
This is actually a huge match for Scurvy, because they have a really back-loaded schedule. 50 Shades is the first of three games against the higher-tier teams of Division 2. Up next is Aussie powerhouse Ascension, before they close the season against Team Work & Tactics.
Scurvy, however, have an ace up their sleeve in the form of new pick-up Lamb (duplex). This addition is bolstering a roster that is already stacked with talent, and look for Lamb to make an impact right away. 50 Shades will prove to be the toughest game of the season so far for Scurvy, and it will be undoubtedly a hard-earned victory for the North Americans as they try to create a little more separation from the rest of the pack and hold on to that coveted #1 seed going into the home stretch.
Prediction: #1 Scurvy > #3 50 Shades, 3-1 (2-0 Veil, 1-1 Tram)
Top Performers: Lamb & Wake (Scurvy), Rage Nation & Intensify (50 Shades)
Result: #1 Scurvy = #3 50 Shades, 2-2 (THANKS DECOY)
Group B
Roster Changes ~ #4 onFire: +ret
Bye Week: #1 FLASH (Formerly known as Pathogen), #6 Virtual Selection (> #7 o Victory 4-0, Forfeit)
#2 (▲ #? / #7) Packet loss* (2-0-0, 8-0) vs. #4 (▼ #? / #3) onFire* (1-0-0, 4-0)
As of this writing, there's only one game separating the top 5 teams in Group B. The common opponent between these two teams is current #6 Virtual Selection, which is not good news for onFire. I've personally seen VS give onFire quite a bit of trouble, and Packet loss dispatched VS in a 4-0 sweep earlier this season.
But there's a reason the games are played in NS2, and not on paper: anything can happen. eSports math doesn't normally work (although it's a lot more reliable than sports or MMA math), so just because Team A > Team B, and Team C > Team A, it doesn't necessarily follow that Team C > Team B. Regardless, onFire have their work cut out for them as you don't just fluke a 4-0 over the Frenchmen in Virtual Selection... but Packet loss have done just that.
Let's see if new addition ret will give onFire another dynamic player on the field, because they'll need any boost they can get if they want to stay in the running with FLASH, dysgorge, and Packet loss.
onFire will play up to their competition here and draw the favored Packet loss.
Prediction: #2 Packet loss = #4 onFire, 2-2 (Packet loss > 2-0 Veil, onFire > 2-0 Tram)
Top Performers: Koli & shinwa (Packet loss), Smaragor & ret (onFire)
Result: #4 onFire > #2 Packet loss, 4-0 (Totally underestimating onFire this season! They really are on fire :p)
#3 ( ▬ #? / #1) dysgorge* (1-0-1, 6-2) vs. #5 ( ▬ #? / #5) RaZe* (1-0-1, 4-0)
Despite having played only one game so far, dysgorge have proven themselves more than competent to stand up against any Division 2 teams by drawing odds-on Group B favorite FLASH (previously known as Pathogen).
Now the Aussies of RaZe stand in their way. Oddly enough, both teams have relatively huge rosters: while I know that dysgorge has a pretty solid starting 6, I'm admittedly not as well-acquainted with RaZe, so I'm not sure how solid their team is. They are, however, the current #1 team in the AusNS2 League, although as of this writing, they have yet to face Ascension, Seraphic Nexus, and Lord Mayor: the consensus top 3 Aussie teams (Note: Lord Mayor are not participating in NSL S3).
Regardless, dysgorge need a strong outing here to prove that they were worthy of that preseason #1 Group Ranking, and they'll return to form here with a solid victory over the Aussies.
Prediction: #3 dysgorge > #5 RaZe, 3-1 (1-1 Veil, 2-0 Tram)
Top Performers: MrPenniL & Vahn Paktu (dysgorge), Kylesickone & Lucas2616 (RaZe)
Result: #5 RaZe > #3 dysgorge, 3-1 (Oof. Maybe next time D:)
